Nitish down, BJP up or Game is ON

The Nitish Kumar Government in Bihar is up against heavy odds, according to the 2013 Hindu-CNN-IBN-CSDS election tracker. The survey shows that the state government’s performance and approval ratings have taken a huge hit compared to 2011. Down from 90 per cent to 69 per cent measured for performance. and from 87 per cent to 54 per cent measured for approval/popularity.

To make matters worse, the survey shows wide disapproval for Mr. Kumar's decision to break with the Bharatiya Janata Party on the issue of Narendra Modi leading the National Democratic Alliance. Forty-one per cent respondents from the Kurmi-Koeri castes, who form Mr. Kumar’s core constituency, said he should have accepted Mr. Modi. This flies against the perception that Mr. Kumar broke with the BJP in response to demands from his voters.

The good news for the Chief Minister is that there seems to be no erosion in the Janata Dal(United)’s vote share post its split with the BJP. If anything the JD(U)’share of votes is shown to be up by a percentage point, which could of course also be due to the JD(U) being able to contest more seats. On the other hand, the survey shows a significant gain in the BJP’s vote share which could be because of Mr. Modi.

The survey makes no mention of alliances. Clearly with his own vote base intact , Mr. Kumar can more than recover his fortunes if he chooses to align with the Congress.